TY -的盟Husnayain Atina AU -垫片,Eunha盟(Fuad茴香酒非盟- Su,艾米丽Chia-Yu PY - 2021 DA - 2021/12/22 TI -预测新每日COVID-19病例和死亡使用搜索引擎查询数据从2020年到2021年在韩国:Infodemiology研究乔- J地中海互联网Res SP - e34178六世- 23 - 12 KW -预测KW -互联网搜索KW - COVID-19 KW -韩国KW - Infodemiology AB -背景:鉴于当前的COVID-19大流行形势，准确的预测可以极大地帮助未来几波的卫生资源管理。然而，作为一种新实体，COVID-19的疾病动态似乎难以预测。外部因素，如互联网搜索数据，需要包括在模型中，以提高其准确性。然而，目前尚不清楚将在线搜索量纳入模型是否会在长期预测中带来更好的预测性能。目的:本研究旨在分析搜索引擎查询数据是否应被纳入短期和长期每日新增COVID-19病例和死亡人数预测模型的重要变量。方法:我们使用了韩国2020年1月20日至2021年7月31日期间从谷歌和苹果公司获得的国家级案件相关数据、NAVER搜索量和流动性数据。数据汇总为四个子集:在报告第一例病例后3、6、12和18个月。所有子集中前80%的数据作为训练集，其余数据作为测试集。具有正态分布、泊松分布和负二项分布的广义线性模型(GLMs)，以及具有套索、自适应套索和弹性净正则化的线性回归(LR)模型。 Root mean square error values were defined as a loss function and were used to assess the performance of the models. All analyses and visualizations were conducted in SAS Studio, which is part of the SAS OnDemand for Academics. Results: GLMs with different types of distribution functions may have been beneficial in predicting new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the outbreak. Over longer periods, as the distribution of cases and deaths became more normally distributed, LR models with regularization may have outperformed the GLMs. This study also found that models performed better when predicting new daily deaths compared to new daily cases. In addition, an evaluation of feature effects in the models showed that NAVER search volumes were useful variables in predicting new daily COVID-19 cases, particularly in the first 6 months of the outbreak. Searches related to logistical needs, particularly for “thermometer” and “mask strap,” showed higher feature effects in that period. For longer prediction periods, NAVER search volumes were still found to constitute an important variable, although with a lower feature effect. This finding suggests that search term use should be considered to maintain the predictive performance of models. Conclusions: NAVER search volumes were important variables in short- and long-term prediction, with higher feature effects for predicting new daily COVID-19 cases in the first 6 months of the outbreak. Similar results were also found for death predictions. SN - 1438-8871 UR - //www.mybigtv.com/2021/12/e34178 UR - https://doi.org/10.2196/34178 UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34762064 DO - 10.2196/34178 ID - info:doi/10.2196/34178 ER -