TY -非盟的曹Zicheng盟——唐,冯盟——陈,Cai盟——张气非盟-郭,旗下非盟-林,Ruizhen盟——黄Zhihong AU -邓,易盟——谢,Ting盟——徐,宇田盟歌,Yanxin盟——吴,冯盟——咚,沛沛AU -罗,Ganfeng盟——江Yawen盟——邹Huachun AU - Chen Yao-Qing盟——太阳,Litao AU -蜀粤龙盟- Du, Xiangjun PY - 2020 DA - 2020/11/11 TI -爆发系统性因素对结果的影响在中国小说COVID-19疾病:因子分析研究JO - J Med Internet Res SP - e23853 VL - 22 IS - 11 KW - COVID-19 KW -新增病例KW -增长率KW -多维因子KW -统计机器学习AB -背景:新型COVID-19疾病在全球范围内传播，导致新的大流行。中国政府在疫情早期实施了强有力的干预措施，包括严格的旅行禁令和保持社交距离政策。优先分析影响疫情结果的不同因素对于精确预防和控制传染病非常重要。我们提出了一个解决这一问题的新框架，并将其应用于来自中国的数据。目的:本研究旨在系统识别中国国家层面和城市层面对COVID-19控制的影响因素。方法:收集来自中国343个城市的每日COVID-19病例数据和相关多维数据，包括旅行相关、医疗、社会经济、环境和流感样疾病因素。使用相关性分析和可解释的机器学习算法来评估疫情期间(即2020年1月17日至2月29日)各因素对新病例和COVID-19增长率的定量贡献。结果:影响新冠肺炎疫情在中国传播的因素较多。与旅行相关的人口流动是中国新增病例和COVID-19增长率的主要影响因素，其贡献率分别高达77%和41%。 There was a clear lag effect for travel-related factors (previous vs current week: new cases, 45% vs 32%; COVID-19 growth rates, 21% vs 20%). Travel from non-Wuhan regions was the single factor with the most significant impact on COVID-19 growth rates (contribution: new cases, 12%; COVID-19 growth rate, 26%), and its contribution could not be ignored. City flow, a measure of outbreak control strength, contributed 16% and 7% to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates, respectively. Socioeconomic factors also played important roles in COVID-19 growth rates in China (contribution, 28%). Other factors, including medical, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, also contributed to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China. Based on our analysis of individual cities, compared to Beijing, population flow from Wuhan and internal flow within Wenzhou were driving factors for increasing the number of new cases in Wenzhou. For Chongqing, the main contributing factor for new cases was population flow from Hubei, beyond Wuhan. The high COVID-19 growth rates in Wenzhou were driven by population-related factors. Conclusions: Many factors contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak outcomes in China. The differential effects of various factors, including specific city-level factors, emphasize the importance of precise, targeted strategies for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak and future infectious disease outbreaks. SN - 1438-8871 UR - //www.mybigtv.com/2020/11/e23853/ UR - https://doi.org/10.2196/23853 UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33098287 DO - 10.2196/23853 ID - info:doi/10.2196/23853 ER -