基于实时监测的流感活动性综合检测与预测[j]卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析算法设计%A Spreco,Armin %A Eriksson,Olle %A Dahlström，Örjan %A Cowling,Benjamin John %A Timpka,Toomas %+ Linköping大学医学与健康科学系健康科学学院，斯德哥尔摩，Sandbäcksgatan 7, Linköping, 581 83，瑞典，46 737543032，armin.spreco@liu.se %K人类流感%K算法%K流行病学监测%K公共卫生监测%K评价研究%K流行病学方法%D 2017 %7 15.06.2017 %9背景:流感是一种病毒性呼吸道疾病，能够引起流行病，对全球社区构成威胁。卫生保健和公共卫生环境中诊断和预诊断来源的电子“大数据”的可得性迅速增加，使新一代方法得以在当地发现和预测冬季流感季节和流感大流行。目的:本研究的目的是提出一种利用电子监测数据综合检测和预测当地流感病毒活动的方法，并通过对来自瑞典一个县的真实数据的回顾性应用来评估其性能。方法:根据适合当地监测的流感检测和预测方法的设计原理，正式定义了一种综合检测和预测方法。这种新方法回顾性地应用于瑞典一个县(人口44.5万)2008- 2009年冬季流感季节的数据。结果数据代表了来自电子健康数据存储库的符合流感临床病例定义(基于国际疾病分类第10版[ICD-10]代码)的个体。从呼叫到县的远程护理服务的信息被用作综合征数据源。结果:该方法基于非机制统计模型，适合于地方卫生信息系统集成。 The method is divided into separate modules for detection and prediction of local influenza virus activity. The function of the detection module is to alert for an upcoming period of increased load of influenza cases on local health care (using influenza-diagnosis data), whereas the function of the prediction module is to predict the timing of the activity peak (using syndromic data) and its intensity (using influenza-diagnosis data). For detection modeling, exponential regression was used based on the assumption that the beginning of a winter influenza season has an exponential growth of infected individuals. For prediction modeling, linear regression was applied on 7-day periods at the time in order to find the peak timing, whereas a derivate of a normal distribution density function was used to find the peak intensity. We found that the integrated detection and prediction method detected the 2008-09 winter influenza season on its starting day (optimal timeliness 0 days), whereas the predicted peak was estimated to occur 7 days ahead of the factual peak and the predicted peak intensity was estimated to be 26% lower than the factual intensity (6.3 compared with 8.5 influenza-diagnosis cases/100,000). Conclusions: Our detection and prediction method is one of the first integrated methods specifically designed for local application on influenza data electronically available for surveillance. The performance of the method in a retrospective study indicates that further prospective evaluations of the methods are justified. %M 28619700 %R 10.2196/jmir.7101 %U //www.mybigtv.com/2017/6/e211/ %U https://doi.org/10.2196/jmir.7101 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28619700