TY - JOUR AU - van der Ploeg, Tjeerd AU - Gobbens, Robbert J J PY - 2022 DA - 2022/10/20 TI -荷兰城市COVID-19感染预测:算法开发和解释乔- JMIR公共卫生Surveill SP - e38450六世- 8 - 10 KW -直辖市属性KW -数据合并KW -建模技术KW -变量选择KW -预测模型KW -公共卫生KW - COVID-19 KW -监视KW -静态数据KW -荷兰公共领域KW -流行KW -武汉KW -病毒KW -公共KW -感染KW -发烧KW——咳嗽KW -拥堵KW -疲劳KW -症状KW -肺炎KW -呼吸困难KW -死亡AB -背景:2019年12月，中国武汉市首次发现COVID-19。该病毒迅速传播，并于2020年3月11日被宣布为大流行。感染后，会出现发烧、(干咳)、鼻塞和疲劳等症状。在某些情况下，该病毒会导致严重的并发症，如肺炎和呼吸困难，并可能导致死亡。这种病毒也在荷兰迅速传播，荷兰是一个人口密集、人口老龄化的小国。荷兰的卫生保健水平很高，但医院的能力存在问题，例如可用床位和工作人员的数量。还有一些地区和市政当局受到的打击比其他地区更严重。在荷兰，有重要的数据来源可用于每日COVID-19数字和有关市政当局的信息。 Objective: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. Methods: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. Results: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. Conclusions: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared. SN - 2369-2960 UR - https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/10/e38450 UR - https://doi.org/10.2196/38450 UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36 DO - 10.2196/38450 ID - info:doi/10.2196/38450 ER -