%0期刊文章%@ 2369-2960 %I JMIR出版物%V 8% 卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析N 8% P e34589 %T德克萨斯州城市大肠癌发病率，不平等和预防优先事项:使用“监视”软件包的监测研究%A Donegan,Connor %A Hughes,Amy E %A Lee,Simon J Craddock人口与数据科学系，德克萨斯大学西南医学中心，Harry Hines大道5323号，达拉斯，德克萨斯州，75390，美国，1 214 648 9400，Connor.Donegan@UTSouthwestern.edu %K贝叶斯分析%K癌症预防%K结直肠癌%K健康公平%K开源软件%K公共卫生监测%K时间序列分析%D 2022 %7 16.8.2022 %9原始论文%J JMIR公共卫生监测%G英文%X背景:利用人口监测数据监测疾病发病率是公共卫生研究和实践的基础。贝叶斯疾病监测方法比传统方法具有优势，包括在模型规范方面具有更大的灵活性，以及能够对模型派生的感兴趣量进行形式化推断。然而，用于贝叶斯推断的软件平台对于非专业人士来说通常是无法访问的。目的:为了提高卫生监测研究人员对贝叶斯方法的可访问性，我们介绍了一种贝叶斯方法和开源软件包surveillance，用于疾病发病率和死亡率的时间序列建模。根据病例数和高危人群数据，该软件使卫生研究人员能够推断潜在风险和衍生量，包括年龄标准化率、年度和累计百分比变化以及不平等的衡量标准。方法:我们使用第一差分(随机游走)先验指定病例计数和对数风险模型趋势的泊松似然。surveil R包中的模型是使用Stan建模语言构建的。我们通过分析1999年至2018年德克萨斯州4个最大的大都市统计区中年龄在50-79岁之间的非拉丁裔黑人(黑人)、非拉丁裔白人(白人)和西班牙裔/拉丁裔(任何种族)成年人的年龄标准化结直肠癌(CRC)发病率，证明了该方法和软件。 Results: Our analysis revealed a cumulative decline of 31% (95% CI –37% to –25%) in CRC risk among Black adults, 17% (95% CI –23% to –11%) for Latino adults, and 35% (95% CI –38% to –31%) for White adults from 1999 to 2018. None of the 3 observed groups experienced significant incidence reduction in the final 4 years of the study (2015-2018). The Black-White rate difference (per 100,000) was 44 (95% CI 30-57) in 1999 and 35 (95% CI 28-43) in 2018. Cumulatively, the Black-White gap accounts for 3983 CRC cases (95% CI 3746-4219) or 31% (95% CI 29%-32%) of total CRC incidence among Black adults in this period. Conclusions: Stalled progress on CRC prevention and excess CRC risk among Black residents warrant special attention as cancer prevention and control priorities in urban Texas. Our methodology and software can help the public and health agencies monitor health inequalities and evaluate progress toward disease prevention goals. Advantages of the methodology over current common practice include the following: (1) the absence of piecewise linearity constraints on the model space, and (2) formal inference can be undertaken on any model-derived quantities of interest using Bayesian methods. %M 35972778 %R 10.2196/34589 %U https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/8/e34589 %U https://doi.org/10.2196/34589 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35972778