2013 - 2030年中国食管癌的疾病和经济负担:卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析动态队列建模研究%A李媛媛%A徐俊芳%A顾宇璇%A孙雪山%A董恒锦%A陈昌桂%+全科医生，杭州市钱塘区一鹏路98号，86 13757119185,generalpractice@163.com %K食管癌%K疾病负担%K残疾调整生命年%K经济负担%D 2022 %7 2.3.2022 %9原创论文%J JMIR公共卫生监测%G英语%X背景:食管癌(EC)是全球肿瘤相关死亡的第六大原因。对EC负担的估计是必要的，可以为当地的癌症控制提供循证建议。目的:通过估计2013 - 2030年中国性别残疾调整生命年(DALYs)和直接医疗支出，预测中国EC疾病负担。方法:建立动态队列马尔可夫模型，按性别模拟EC流行率、DALYs和直接医疗支出。输入数据收集自《中国统计年鉴》、《中国儿童发展统计报告》、《世界人口展望2019》和已发表论文。采用JoinPoint回归程序计算DALY率的年平均百分比变化(AAPC)，采用年平均增长率(AAGR)分析直接医疗支出随时间的变化趋势。结果:从2013年到2030年，预计EC患病率将从每10万人61.0增加到64.5，每年EC病例增加11.5%(从83.56万增加到93.18万)。调整寿命年数将增加21.3%(从30033.4万增加到3644.4万)，损失的寿命年数将占调整寿命年数的90%以上。 The DALY rates per 100,000 people will increase from 219.2 to 252.3; however, there was a difference between sexes, with an increase from 302.9 to 384.3 in males and a decline from 131.2 to 115.9 in females. The AAPC was 0.8% (95% CI 0.8% to 0.9%), 1.4% (95% CI 1.3% to 1.5%), and –0.7% (95% CI –0.8% to –0.7%) for both sexes, males, and females, respectively. The direct medical expenditure will increase by 128.7% (from US $33.4 to US $76.4 billion), with an AAGR of 5.0%. The direct medical expenditure is 2-3 times higher in males than in females. Conclusions: EC still causes severe disease and economic burdens. YLL are responsible for the majority of DALYs, which highlights an urgent need to establish a beneficial policy to reduce the EC burden. %M 34963658 %R 10.2196/33191 %U https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/3/e33191 %U https://doi.org/10.2196/33191 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34963658