%0期刊文章%@ 2369-2960 %I JMIR出版物%V 8% 卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析N 11% P e36424 %T人群水平SARS-CoV-2周期阈值与COVID-19感染趋势之间的关系:纵向研究%A Dehesh,Paria %A Baradaran,Hamid Reza %A Eshrati,Babak %A Motevalian,Seyed Abbas %A Salehi,Masoud %A Donyavi,Tahereh %+伊朗医学科学大学公共卫生学院流行病学系，德黑兰Hemmat公路，1449614535，伊朗，98 9183616737，babak.eshrati@gmail.com %K周期阈值%K COVID-19 %K趋势%K监测%K流行病学%K疾病监测%K监测%K数字监测%K预测模型%K流行病建模%K卫生系统%K传染病%D 2022 %7 8.11.2022 %9原始论文%J JMIR公共卫生监测%G英文%X背景:人群水平实时逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)循环阈值分布作为病毒载量的代理，可能是预测COVID-19动态的有用指标。目的:以每日新冠肺炎住院病例数、每日新增检测阳性病例数、每日死亡病例数、按年龄分组的新冠肺炎住院病例数计算，探讨日均Ct值变化趋势与新冠肺炎动态之间的关系。我们进一步试图确定这些数据序列之间的滞后。方法:本研究的样本采集时间为2021年3月21日至12月1日。记录所有转到伊朗德黑兰医学科学大学分子诊断实验室进行RT-PCR检测的患者的每日Ct值。从伊朗德黑兰省COVID-19患者信息登记系统中提取每日阳性检测数和按年龄分组的住院患者数。对时间序列变量建立了自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型。 Cross-correlation analysis was then performed to determine the best lag and correlations between the average daily Ct value and other COVID-19 dynamics–related variables. Finally, the best-selected lag of Ct identified through cross-correlation was incorporated as a covariate into the autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) model to calculate the coefficients. Results: Daily average Ct values showed a significant negative correlation (23-day time delay) with the daily number of newly hospitalized patients (P=.02), 30-day time delay with the daily number of new positive tests (P=.02), and daily number of COVID-19 deaths (P=.02). The daily average Ct value with a 30-day delay could impact the daily number of positive tests for COVID-19 (β=–16.87, P<.001) and the daily number of deaths from COVID-19 (β=–1.52, P=.03). There was a significant association between Ct lag (23 days) and the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations (β=–24.12, P=.005). Cross-correlation analysis showed significant time delays in the average Ct values and daily hospitalized patients between 18-59 years (23-day time delay, P=.02) and in patients over 60 years old (23-day time delay, P<.001). No statistically significant relation was detected in the number of daily hospitalized patients under 5 years old (9-day time delay, P=.27) and aged 5-17 years (13-day time delay, P=.39). Conclusions: It is important for surveillance of COVID-19 to find a good indicator that can predict epidemic surges in the community. Our results suggest that the average daily Ct value with a 30-day delay can predict increases in the number of positive confirmed COVID-19 cases, which may be a useful indicator for the health system. %M 36240022 %R 10.2196/36424 %U https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/11/e36424 %U https://doi.org/10.2196/36424 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240022