%0期刊文章%@ 2369-2960 %I JMIR出版物%V 8% 卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析N 10% P e34555% T关键人口规模估计，以指导尼日利亚的艾滋病毒流行对策:三源捕获-再捕获数据的贝叶斯分析%A McIntyre,Anne F %A Mitchell,Andrew %A Stafford,Kristen A %A Nwafor,Samuel Uchenna %A Lo,Julia %A Sebastian,Victor %A Schwitters,Amee %A Swaminathan,Mahesh %A Dalhatu,Ibrahim %A Charurat，全球卫生中心全球艾滋病毒和结核病部，疾病控制和预防中心，亚特兰大，30329，美国，1 404 639 8284，zat4@cdc.gov %K性工作者%K男性与男性发生性行为%K注射毒品者%K HIV %K人口规模%K人口%K数据%K女性%K男性%K毒品%K毒品注射%K流行病%K尼日利亚%D 2022年%7 26.10.2022年%9原始论文%J JMIR公共卫生监测%G英语%X背景:尼日利亚是全球第四大艾滋病负担国。关键人群，包括女性性工作者、男男性行为者和注射毒品者，由于被污名化和被定罪的行为，比一般人群更容易感染艾滋病毒。需要可靠的关键人口规模估计，以指导艾滋病毒流行病应对工作。目的:我们的研究目的是使用实证方法进行抽样和分析，以提高尼日利亚7个州(Akwa Ibom, Benue, Cross River, Lagos, Nasarawa, Rivers和联邦首都地区)的女性性工作者，男性性行为者和注射吸毒者的人口规模估计质量，以进行项目规划，并展示改进的统计估计方法。方法:从2018年10月至12月，我们使用3源捕获-再捕获来估算尼日利亚7个州的人口规模。在3源捕获-再捕获开始前绘制热点图。我们对女性性工作者、男男性行为者和注射毒品者进行了三次采样，时间间隔约为一周。在热点遭遇战中，每个捕获回合都会为关键群体成员提供便宜而难忘的独特物品。 In subsequent rounds, key population members were offered an object and asked to identify objects received during previous rounds (if any). Correct responses were tallied and recorded on tablets. Data were aggregated by key population and state for analysis. Median population size estimates were derived using Bayesian nonparametric latent-class models with 80% highest density intervals. Results: Overall, we sampled approximately 310,000 persons at 9015 hotspots during 3 independent captures. Population size estimates for female sex workers ranged from 14,500 to 64,300; population size estimates for men who have sex with men ranged from 3200 to 41,400; and population size estimates for people who inject drugs ranged from 3400 to 30,400. Conclusions: This was the first implementation of these 3-source capture-recapture methods in Nigeria. Our population size estimates were larger than previously documented for each key population in all states. The Bayesian models account for factors, such as social visibility, that influence heterogeneous capture probabilities, resulting in more reliable population size estimates. The larger population size estimates suggest a need for programmatic scale-up to reach these populations, which are at highest risk for HIV. %M 362875 %R 10.2196/34555 %U https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/10/e34555 %U https://doi.org/10.2196/34555 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/362875