@文章{信息:doi/10.2196/33191，作者=“李媛媛徐、顾俊芳、孙宇萱、董雪山、陈恒进、长桂”，标题=“2013 - 2030年中国食管癌疾病与经济负担:动态队列模型研究”，刊=“JMIR公共卫生监测”，年=“2022”，月=“3”，日=“2”，卷=“8”，数=“3”，页数=“e33191”，关键词=“食管癌;疾病负担;残疾调整生命年;背景:食管癌(EC)是全球肿瘤相关死亡的第六大原因。对EC负担的估计是必要的，可以为当地的癌症控制提供循证建议。目的:本研究旨在通过2013 - 2030年按性别划分的残疾调整生命年(DALYs)和直接医疗支出，预测中国EC的疾病负担。方法:建立动态队列马尔可夫模型，按性别模拟EC患病率、DALYs和直接医疗支出。输入数据来源于《中国统计年鉴》、《中国儿童发展统计报告》、《世界人口展望2019》以及已发表的论文。应用JoinPoint回归程序计算DALY率的平均年百分比变化(AAPC)，而应用平均年增长率(AAGR)分析直接医疗支出随时间变化的趋势。结果:从2013年到2030年，预计EC患病率将从每10万人61.0人增加到64.5人，每年EC病例将增加11.5 %(从835,600人增加到931,800人)。 The DALYs will increase by 21.3{\%} (from 30,034,000 to 36,444,000), and the years of life lost (YLL) will account for over 90{\%} of the DALYs. The DALY rates per 100,000 people will increase from 219.2 to 252.3; however, there was a difference between sexes, with an increase from 302.9 to 384.3 in males and a decline from 131.2 to 115.9 in females. The AAPC was 0.8{\%} (95{\%} CI 0.8{\%} to 0.9{\%}), 1.4{\%} (95{\%} CI 1.3{\%} to 1.5{\%}), and --0.7{\%} (95{\%} CI --0.8{\%} to --0.7{\%}) for both sexes, males, and females, respectively. The direct medical expenditure will increase by 128.7{\%} (from US {\$}33.4 to US {\$}76.4 billion), with an AAGR of 5.0{\%}. The direct medical expenditure is 2-3 times higher in males than in females. Conclusions: EC still causes severe disease and economic burdens. YLL are responsible for the majority of DALYs, which highlights an urgent need to establish a beneficial policy to reduce the EC burden. ", issn="2369-2960", doi="10.2196/33191", url="https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/3/e33191", url="https://doi.org/10.2196/33191", url="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34963658" }