@文章{info:doi/10.2196/26042，作者=“Post, Lori和Mason, Maryann和Singh, Lauren Nadya和Wleklinski, Nicholas P和Moss, Charles B和Mohammad, Hassan和Issa, Tariq Z和Akhetuamhen, Adesuwa I和Brandt, Cynthia A和Welch, Sarah B和Oehmke, James Francis”，标题=“枪支监控对枪支管制政策的影响:回归不连续分析"，期刊="JMIR公共卫生监测"，年="2021"，月="4"，日="22"，卷="7"，数="4"，页="e26042"，关键词="枪支监测;攻击性武器禁令;大容量杂志;枪支管制政策;大规模枪击事件;背景:公共大规模枪击事件是一个重大的公共卫生问题，需要持续的系统监测，以测试和告知应对枪支伤害的政策。尽管人们普遍认为需要采取措施制止公共大规模枪击事件，但对于具体需要采取哪些政策，人们的意见却各不相同，比如禁止攻击性武器和大容量弹匣。目的:本研究的目的是确定联邦攻击性武器禁令(FAWB)(1994-2004)在实施期间是否减少了公共大规模枪击事件的数量。方法:我们从暴力项目中提取公共大规模枪击监视数据，这些数据符合我们的纳入标准，即在同一事件中在公共空间发生4例或4例以上的死亡。 We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. Results: The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work. ", issn="2369-2960", doi="10.2196/26042", url="https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2021/4/e26042", url="https://doi.org/10.2196/26042", url="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33783360" }