TY - JOUR AU - Wang, Xiaofeng AU - Ren, Rui AU - Kattan, Michael W AU - Jehi, Lara AU - Cheng, Zhenshun AU - Fang, Kuangnan PY - 2020 DA - 20/12/23 TI -公共卫生干预对COVID-19患者医院使用的影响:比较研究JO - JMIR公共卫生监测SP - e25174 VL - 6 IS - 4kw - COVID-19 KW -公共卫生KW -干预KW -医院KW -使用KW -预测KW -比较KW -美国KW -中国KW -实施KW -观察AB -背景:在COVID-19大流行期间，美国不同州有不同的非药物公共卫生干预措施。这些干预措施对医院使用的影响尚未得到系统评估。这项调查可以提供数据驱动的证据，以潜在地改善未来公共卫生干预措施的实施。目的:研究美国的两个代表性地区(纽约州、俄亥俄州和湖北省)和中国的一个代表性地区(纽约州、俄亥俄州和湖北省)，并根据重点干预措施，研究其公共卫生干预措施在不同时间段的效果。方法:这项观察性研究评估了2020年3月16日至9月14日纽约州和俄亥俄州以及2020年1月26日至3月31日湖北省的感染、住院和死亡病例数。我们开发了新的贝叶斯广义隔间模型。在模型中对COVID-19的临床阶段进行分层，并通过分段指数函数对公共卫生干预措施的效果进行建模。估计了随时间变化的传播率和有效繁殖数。研究了干预措施与所需医院和重症监护病房床位数量的关系。 Results: The interventions of social distancing, home confinement, and wearing masks significantly decreased (in a Bayesian sense) the case incidence and reduced the demand for beds in all areas. Ohio’s transmission rates declined before the state’s “stay at home” order, which provided evidence that early intervention is important. Wearing masks was significantly associated with reducing the transmission rates after reopening, when comparing New York and Ohio. The centralized quarantine intervention in Hubei played a significant role in further preventing and controlling the disease in that area. The estimated rates that cured patients become susceptible in all areas were small (<0.0001), which indicates that they have little chance to get the infection again. Conclusions: The series of public health interventions in three areas were temporally associated with the burden of COVID-19–attributed hospital use. Social distancing and the use of face masks should continue to prevent the next peak of the pandemic. SN - 2369-2960 UR - http://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2020/4/e25174/ UR - https://doi.org/10.2196/25174 UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33315585 DO - 10.2196/25174 ID - info:doi/10.2196/25174 ER -